Dehumanizing one fact at a time

It is this time of the year: Christmas is coming. I seldom read reflections on the biblical story of the birth of Christ, but one point intrigues me a lot lately. Why is Christ born in a stable? I am not talking about this allegory (being the poorest of the poors) but about the conditions that led to this fact. Every Midnight Mass the same story is repeated over and over (Luke 2:1_20) and starts like this

And it came to pass in those days that a decree went out from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be registered. This census first took place while Quirinius was governing Syria. So all went to be registered, everyone to his own city.

I never payed to much attention to that part of the story. Recent events have changed my mind a lot about this seemingly innocuous circumstances. Any resemblance to real and current events are not coincidental.

The way to hell is paved with statistics

Remarkably it is not the only story in the Bible involving statistics. At the end of the second book of Samuel, there is a census that is mandated by David. God is so angry about so much pride that He decides to punish David. God offers the choice between two punishments: fleeing in front of the enemy for three months or the plague for three days. David choosed the plague…

There is something deep about statistics and (a lack of ?) morality. This link is not made explicit in the texts. But seeing how events unfold, I am starting to get a hunch on why.

Probabilities and statistics are a strange branch of mathematics. You can consider it as a purely mathematical theory, like any other theory. From this angle it is nothing more than usual maths. It becomes strange when you consider how it is, supposedly, linked with reality. Probabilities are supposed to give you a glimpse of the future and statistics a faithful description of the past. The point of this article is not to ponder on the epistemic status of this theory (very interesting) but to see how it has been perverted in today’s public discussion.

Statistics are perverted when they are used as a “ready to fit all size theory” of the world. The lazy idea is that tomorrow will be like yesterday. So if you have a good description of yesterday you can forecast the future. It may be true for many things, like the sun is going to rise after having set. It is not for everything. Actually the more you consider living entities the less it works. If you can learn where a stone will fall when you throw it in the air, good luck trying to make useful forecast with a bird…

On top of that the accuracy and the completeness of data always have to be taken into account. What does it mean to be the king of statistics if you don’t have accurate or complete data with relation to a phenomenon of interest? A particularily talking example is the one of covid deaths. Are we talking about death “with” or “by” covid? And if it is “by” how do you sort the wheat from the chaff when there are several comorbidities? How do you attribute responsabilities? It is not to deny the fact that there are deaths caused by covid. But coming with numbers and claiming that they are facts, and that they have the same undeniability characteristic than the value of the gravitational constant is a little bit strechy. Numbers are just numbers: one of the simplest, and most simplifying, abstractions.

“You shall not worship false idols” are words that come to mind. To not take for granted what are at best partial informations is another, more sciency sounding, way to put it. Problems will happen as naturally as smiles on the face of an happy baby when you don’t take this piece of ancient wisdom seriously.

Projection

Another subtle danger of *facts* and data in general is that they represent, by nature, a very incomplete view of the world. Even if they are perfectly faithfull, which they are never. The world is idiot. It is unique. Data is like a picture of the world. Conflating the map and the territory is not even enough as an allegory. The very fact of focusing on some facts instead of other ones is like the hidden face the Moon. It is always present but never seen. You can imagine the following game. How can you find out the shape of an object just by looking at the shadow this object produces. The art of chinese shadows is precisely about that. You don’t need an elephant to picture an elephant. Focusing on facts alone is like focusing on the back of the Platonic cave. You will find in what minerals the cave is crafted, but you will seldom make progress on grasping reality.

Jailbreak

It is very easy to know where to find data. Actually it is way easier to find data than to isolate from the deluge of data. But where do you find wisdom? It is easier to know where you will not find an ounce of wisdom: in numbers. Insight is not a mathematical operation, no matter how sophisticated. There is no magical recipe. You have to think, and then think again. Then stop thinking, and then think again on what you previously thought.